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Many of us have been in a situation where we jump to conclusions. Sure, sometimes it works out, but there are far too many times where it doesn’t end well. How did I get to this point?  What actions led me to this outcome? What could I have done differently? Avoiding a negative result is key when you find yourself in a position of leadership. One of the tools that can assist you is the Ladder of Inference. Developed by business theorist Chris Argyris, the Ladder of Inference can help you take meaningful action and make decisions based on an open mind and balanced reasoning.

So, what exactly is the Ladder of Inference?  It is a metaphorical ladder that has rungs we climb that start with what we see in the world and end with what we believe.

Let’s go through the rungs of the ladder starting at the bottom.

  1. The first rung on the ladder is observable data. Think of everything we see with our eyes as observable data.
  2. The second rung on the ladder is selected data. We see and observe a lot! Naturally, most of the time we select some data that we think is necessary and ignore the rest.
  3. The third rung on the ladder is assumptions. We take the data we have selected and begin to make assumptions.
  4. The fourth rung on the ladder is conclusions. Based on the assumptions we’ve made, we begin to draw a conclusion that may or may not be correct.
  5. The fifth rung on the ladder is beliefs. These beliefs are created based on what we think about the conclusion we’ve drawn and will vary from person to person.
  6. The sixth rung on the ladder is actions. We begin to take actions that we believe are appropriate based on the beliefs we have created for ourselves.

The problem comes when we make judgments and jump to conclusions too quickly without having all of the facts in place. When we skip rungs on the ladder to get straight to conclusions we miss important steps. Sometimes we need help getting back down the ladder. Questioning your assumptions and conclusions is a good place to start. Ask yourself, “What data did I observe? From that data, what data did I select or choose to ignore?”

Consider a real-world example of how this works. You’re in an executive leadership meeting with several of your colleagues. You observe the associate giving the presentation to everyone, the person next to you shuffling through the packet of papers that was handed out, an employee taking notes and your co-worker who is barely paying attention and is checking things on their laptop. 

There’s a lot going on, so you select data and sort it into what is important and what isn’t.  Let’s presume you’re going to focus on your co-worker who isn’t giving the presenter their full attention. At this point you might make an assumption. You might think your co-worker seems distracted. It’s not unreasonable to think you could next come to the conclusion that something seems to be bothering your co-worker and they have something else on their mind.  If this continues you might create a belief that your co-worker does not seem committed to their work. 

Once that belief is in your head, you might think that this is the right time to take action.  Perhaps you want to suggest to your co-worker that they need to be more engaged in the meeting, or that they could benefit from some coaching.

In reality, you don’t know what was happening with your co-worker. Maybe they were on their laptop because they were finding relevant data that went with the presentation. Perhaps none of the data you observed had anything to do with why your co-worker seemed distracted.  Moving up the ladder and jumping to a conclusion that might not have been correct could have a negative impact on your relationship. Moving thoughtfully up the Ladder of Inference can be positive given that you have good starting data, as well as facts and an open mind to test your assumptions and beliefs.

Using the Ladder of Inference to determine whether or not you’ve gotten to a conclusion without having facts or data to back it up can help you better convey your thought process to others, as well as understand the thought processes of those around you. Consulting with a trusted friend or co-worker as to where you stand on the Ladder of Inference in certain situations is a great exercise in building lasting meaningful relationships. Whether you’re an executive or have a business coaching others, everyone can benefit from this basic tool.

Phil Bergey
On the journey with you,
Philip C. Bergey

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Philip C. Bergey
Post by Philip C. Bergey
September 30, 2019
I walk alongside leaders, listening to understand their challenges, and helping them lead healthy organizations that flourish.

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